Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All Minnesota Twins predictions

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 8:30 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 55.5%
Books consensus 55.5%
Result Minnesota Twins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesMinnesota Twins
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -134 +118
DraftKings -127 +119
ESPN BET -131 +116
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -130 +122
Hard Rock Bet -130 +120
Caesars -133 +123

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesMinnesota Twins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.5% 44.5%
Best book price incl. vig 55.9% 44.8%
Kalshi contract price 54.9% 45.1%
Polymarket contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Markets average 54.7% 45.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record