Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 8:41 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 68.0%
Books consensus 68.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
BetMGM -250 +200
DraftKings -245 +198
ESPN BET -230 +195
FanDuel -245 +200
Hard Rock Bet -220 +210
Caesars -219 +199

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 68.0% 32.0%
Best book price incl. vig 68.7% 32.3%
Kalshi contract price 69.5% 30.5%
Polymarket contract price 69.5% 30.5%
Markets average 69.5% 30.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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