Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Monday, August 17, 2026 · 8:41 PM · Final: 11-5

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 71.3%
Books consensus 71.3%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
BetMGM -295 +230
BetRivers -286 +235
DraftKings -278 +256
ESPN BET -265 +229
Fanatics -285 +230
FanDuel -270 +240
Hard Rock Bet -260 +250
Caesars -285 +245

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 71.3% 28.7%
Best book price incl. vig 72.2% 28.1%
Kalshi contract price 71.5% 28.5%
Polymarket contract price 71.5% 28.5%
Markets average 71.5% 28.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record