Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Colorado Rockies predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · 8:40 PM · Final: 6-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 64.6%
Books consensus 64.6%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -200 +175
DraftKings -193 +179
ESPN BET -203 +177
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -190 +176
Hard Rock Bet -195 +185
Caesars -195 +175

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 64.6% 35.4%
Best book price incl. vig 65.5% 35.1%
Kalshi contract price 64.8% 35.1%
Polymarket contract price 65.5% 34.5%
Markets average 65.1% 34.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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