Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM +140 -170
BetRivers +135 -152
DraftKings +147 -158
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +144 -156
Hard Rock Bet +150 -160
Caesars +145 -155

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.1% 59.9%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 60.3%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Polymarket contract price 40.5% 59.5%
Markets average 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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