Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

All Los Angeles Angels predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 7:06 PM · Final: 3-0

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +148 -167
DraftKings +152 -163
ESPN BET +149 -169
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +152 -166
Hard Rock Bet +155 -165
Caesars +150 -160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.2% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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