Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers

All Atlanta Braves predictions · All Milwaukee Brewers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 4-2

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 51.0%
Books consensus 51.0%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers +100 -113
DraftKings -102 -105
ESPN BET -102 -111
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +104 -114
Hard Rock Bet +100 -110
Caesars -105 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.0% 51.0%
Best book price incl. vig 49.0% 51.2%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Polymarket contract price 48.5% 51.5%
Markets average 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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