Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Chicago White Sox predictions

MLB · Monday, August 24, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 11-2

The model's call
Chicago White Sox to win
Model confidence 54.4%
Books consensus 54.4%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersChicago White Sox
BetMGM +110 -135
BetRivers +120 -136
DraftKings +116 -124
ESPN BET +116 -131
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +114 -124
Hard Rock Bet +115 -125
Caesars +115 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersChicago White Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.6% 54.4%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.4%
Kalshi contract price 45.1% 54.9%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.8% 55.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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