Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 59.0%
Books consensus 59.0%
Result Atlanta Braves won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -150 +132
DraftKings -153 +142
ESPN BET -155 +137
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -148 +138
Hard Rock Bet -150 +140
Caesars -150 +140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.0% 41.0%
Best book price incl. vig 59.7% 41.3%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Polymarket contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Markets average 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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