Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All St. Louis Cardinals predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 7:46 PM · Final: 13-1

The model's call
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Model confidence 53.5%
Books consensus 53.5%
Result Baltimore Orioles won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore OriolesSt. Louis Cardinals
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +115 -130
DraftKings +111 -119
ESPN BET +111 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +114 -124
Hard Rock Bet +110 -120
Caesars +111 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore OriolesSt. Louis Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.5% 53.5%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 54.3%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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