Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 3:41 PM · Final: 0-2

The model's call
Chicago Cubs to win
Model confidence 52.3%
Books consensus 52.3%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -114 +100
DraftKings -115 +107
ESPN BET -120 +107
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 +106
Hard Rock Bet -115 +105
Caesars -115 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago CubsArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.3% 47.7%
Best book price incl. vig 53.3% 48.3%
Kalshi contract price 52.0% 48.0%
Polymarket contract price 51.5% 48.5%
Markets average 51.8% 48.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record