Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels

All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 4:08 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -139 +117
DraftKings -135 +126
ESPN BET -142 +126
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -134 +124
Hard Rock Bet -135 +125
Caesars -135 +125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.4% 43.6%
Best book price incl. vig 57.3% 44.2%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Markets average 56.5% 43.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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