Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Twins at Athletics

All Minnesota Twins predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 9:06 PM · Final: 4-7

The model's call
Minnesota Twins to win
Model confidence 55.6%
Books consensus 55.6%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TwinsAthletics
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -136 +120
DraftKings -125 +116
ESPN BET -136 +121
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -130 +122
Hard Rock Bet -130 +120
Caesars -130 +120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TwinsAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.6% 44.4%
Best book price incl. vig 55.6% 45.0%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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