Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 27, 2026 · 1:06 PM · Final: 1-7

The model's call
Washington Nationals to win
Model confidence 57.3%
Books consensus 57.3%
Result Washington Nationals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +116 -137
DraftKings +131 -140
ESPN BET +126 -142
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +130 -140
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +130 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesWashington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.7% 57.3%
Best book price incl. vig 43.3% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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