Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions
MLB · Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 4-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -106 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -109 | +101 |
| ESPN BET | -111 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -108 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -110 | +100 |
| Caesars | -111 | +101 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1 +123 | +1 -150 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +147 | +1.5 -179 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +146 | +1.5 -176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -107 | 8 -112 |
| DraftKings | 8 -108 | 8 -111 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.