Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
All Miami Marlins predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 12:16 PM · Final: 6-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +110 | -118 |
| ESPN BET | +107 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -120 |
| Caesars | +115 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Marlins | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +160 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -197 | −1.5 +161 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -103 | 9.5 -118 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 +101 | 9.5 -122 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +102 | 9.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 9 -130 | 9 +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.5% | 53.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.