Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 2:11 PM · Final: 1-11
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +148 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +170 | -183 |
| ESPN BET | +162 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +156 | -168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -175 |
| Caesars | +170 | -190 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Royals | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -141 | −1.5 +116 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -136 | −1.5 +113 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -154 | −1.5 +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -106 | 7.5 -115 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 +101 | 7.5 -122 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -102 | 7.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 62.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.