San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions
MLB · Sunday, August 30, 2026 · 1:40 PM · Final: 4-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +140 | -167 |
| DraftKings | +147 | -158 |
| ESPN BET | +143 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +144 | -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -160 |
| Caesars | +147 | -157 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -159 | −1.5 +130 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -161 | −1.5 +133 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -164 | −1.5 +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7 -110 | 7 -129 |
| DraftKings | 7 -114 | 7 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -145 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 60.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.