Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Texas Rangers

All Athletics predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Monday, August 31, 2026 · 8:06 PM · Final: 1-8

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 66.8%
Books consensus 66.8%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +185 -225
BetRivers +175 -215
DraftKings +200 -216
ESPN BET +194 -223
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +200 -220
Hard Rock Bet +200 -210
Caesars +193 -213

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 8 books
Texas Rangers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 48.7% over · 8 books
Over 7.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book AthleticsRangers
BetMGM +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
BetRivers +1.5 -124 −1.5 +102
DraftKings +1.5 -122 −1.5 +101
ESPN BET +1.5 -125 −1.5 +105
Fanatics +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
FanDuel +1.5 -118 −1.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 +105
Caesars +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
BetRivers 7.5 -104 7.5 -118
DraftKings 7.5 -102 7.5 -118
ESPN BET 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
Fanatics 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
FanDuel 7.5 -105 7.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +100 7.5 -110
Caesars 7.5 +100 7.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.2% 66.8%
Best book price incl. vig 33.3% 67.7%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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