San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
All San Diego Padres predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -140 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +117 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| ESPN BET | -128 | +113 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -140 | +115 |
| Caesars | -127 | +117 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -140 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -148 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +113 | +1.5 -136 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -140 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
| BetRivers | 9 -121 | 9 -118 |
| DraftKings | 9 -120 | 9 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 +100 | 9.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 55.9% | 46.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Markets average | 55.5% | 44.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.