Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 62.5%
Books consensus 62.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Toronto Blue Jays | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +154 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +163 | -176 |
| ESPN BET | +158 | -181 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +162 | -174 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -170 |
| Caesars | +162 | -177 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Toronto Blue Jays | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 38.0% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Markets average | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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