Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 6:46 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
BetMGM -180 +145
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -170 +158
ESPN BET -173 +152
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -166 +154
Hard Rock Bet -165 +155
Caesars -172 +157

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.4% 38.6%
Best book price incl. vig 62.3% 38.8%
Kalshi contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Polymarket contract price 61.5% 38.5%
Markets average 61.5% 38.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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