Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 6:46 PM
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -180 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -167 | +138 |
| DraftKings | -170 | +158 |
| ESPN BET | -173 | +152 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -166 | +154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +155 |
| Caesars | -172 | +157 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.3% | 38.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 61.5% | 38.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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