Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

MLB · Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 9:39 PM

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 62.6%
Books consensus 62.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -190 +154
BetRivers -182 +155
DraftKings -191 +157
ESPN BET -185 +155
Fanatics -190 +155
FanDuel -188 +158
Hard Rock Bet -175 +165
Caesars -177 +162

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.6% 37.4%
Best book price incl. vig 63.6% 37.7%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%
Polymarket contract price 63.5% 36.5%
Markets average 63.5% 36.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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