Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Texas Rangers

All Athletics predictions · All Texas Rangers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 2:36 PM · Final: 9-2

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsTexas Rangers
BetMGM +140 -165
BetRivers +145 -175
DraftKings +137 -166
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +136 -162
Hard Rock Bet +140 -165
Caesars +145 -155

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 41.5% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 52.2% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 7.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book AthleticsRangers
BetMGM +1.5 -155 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -152 −1.5 +123
DraftKings +1.5 -156 −1.5 +129
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
FanDuel +1.5 -156 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Caesars +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 +100 8 -120
BetRivers 7.5 -108 7.5 -113
DraftKings 7.5 -119 7.5 -101
ESPN BET 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Fanatics 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
FanDuel 7.5 -122 7.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Caesars 8 +100 8 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.1% 59.9%
Best book price incl. vig 40.8% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 40.5% 59.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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