Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

All New York Yankees predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 6-3

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 59.6%
Books consensus 59.6%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -165 +145
DraftKings -161 +133
ESPN BET -162 +143
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -162 +136
Hard Rock Bet -165 +140
Caesars -156 +146

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Yankees −1.5
priced 44.6% to cover · 8 books
New York Yankees covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 50.1% over · 8 books
opened 7
Over 6.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book YankeesAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +118 +1.5 -145
BetRivers −1.5 +108 +1.5 -132
DraftKings −1.5 +119 +1.5 -144
ESPN BET −1.5 +115 +1.5 -135
Fanatics −1.5 +115 +1.5 -140
FanDuel −1.5 +112 +1.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +115 +1.5 -135
Caesars −1.5 +118 +1.5 -140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -110 6.5 -109
DraftKings 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -105 6.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.6% 40.4%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 40.7%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Polymarket contract price 59.5% 40.5%
Markets average 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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