San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB · Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 12:37 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 60.3%
Books consensus 60.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| ESPN BET | +149 | -169 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -165 |
| Caesars | +154 | -164 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 39.4% | 62.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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