San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 3, 2026 · 12:37 PM · Final: 2-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| ESPN BET | +149 | -169 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -165 |
| Caesars | +154 | -164 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -141 | −1.5 +116 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -144 | −1.5 +120 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +118 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -102 | 9 -118 |
| BetRivers | 9 -117 | 9 -122 |
| DraftKings | 9 -107 | 9 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 39.4% | 62.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.