Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 7:01 PM · Final: 10-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -157 | +130 |
| DraftKings | -157 | +130 |
| ESPN BET | -152 | +134 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +135 |
| Caesars | -150 | +140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Brewers | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -121 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +101 | +1.5 -122 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -110 | +1.5 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -113 | 9.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -109 | 9.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 59.0% | 41.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.