Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
All Atlanta Braves predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 5-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -106 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -123 |
| ESPN BET | +107 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -210 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +176 | +1.5 -216 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +178 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 +100 | 7 -130 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 7 -102 | 7 -119 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -124 | 6.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 53.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.2% | 51.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.