Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Houston Astros predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 1-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +113 | -128 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +115 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +160 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -191 | −1.5 +157 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -196 | −1.5 +162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -121 | 8.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | 9 -104 | 9 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.5% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.1% | 53.9% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.