New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
All New York Yankees predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -114 | -104 |
| DraftKings | -112 | -108 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -111 | +101 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +153 | +1.5 -186 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -182 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -178 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 7 -124 | 7 +105 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -127 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -104 | 7.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.4% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.