Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
All Detroit Tigers predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 3:16 PM · Final: 6-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +104 | -124 |
| DraftKings | +108 | -130 |
| ESPN BET | +113 | -128 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +112 | -122 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Tigers | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +156 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8 -117 | 8 -122 |
| DraftKings | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -102 | 8.5 -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.9% | 55.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.