Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins
All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 6-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Chicago Cubs | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -161 | +133 |
| ESPN BET | -169 | +149 |
| Fanatics | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -168 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +140 |
| Caesars | -163 | +153 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Cubs | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 -107 | +1.5 -114 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +108 | +1.5 -130 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -102 | +1.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -105 | +1.5 -115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8 -122 | 8 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8 -112 | 8 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Chicago Cubs | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 61.7% | 39.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Markets average | 61.0% | 39.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.