Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB · Friday, September 4, 2026 · 10:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 72.2%
Books consensus 72.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +240 | -300 |
| BetRivers | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings | +248 | -314 |
| ESPN BET | +240 | -290 |
| FanDuel | +245 | -300 |
| Caesars | +255 | -295 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 28.2% | 74.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| Markets average | 26.5% | 73.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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