San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
All San Francisco Giants predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 9-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | San Francisco Giants | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -182 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| ESPN BET | +149 | -169 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +147 | -157 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -139 | −1.5 +115 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -149 | −1.5 +124 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -152 | −1.5 +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +126 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -127 | 8 -112 |
| DraftKings | 8 -107 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Francisco Giants | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 61.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.