Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
All Atlanta Braves predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:06 PM · Final: 2-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +135 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +137 | -166 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -159 |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +142 | -168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +147 | -157 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +132 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +130 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -156 | −1.5 +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +130 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -117 | 8 -122 |
| DraftKings | 8 -115 | 8 -104 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Atlanta Braves | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.5% | 61.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.