Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 6:41 PM
The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +135 |
| Caesars | -153 | +143 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.5% | 41.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Markets average | 60.3% | 39.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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