Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Houston Astros predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 4-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -105 | -109 |
| DraftKings | -113 | -106 |
| ESPN BET | -111 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -112 | +102 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +144 | +1.5 -174 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -114 | 8.5 -105 |
| DraftKings | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -124 | 8.5 +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -125 | 8.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.