New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
All New York Yankees predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 5-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +108 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +105 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | +109 | -123 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +117 | -127 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -230 | −1.5 +175 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -198 | −1.5 +163 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +180 | +1.5 -220 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.1% | 55.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.8% | 55.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.