Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB · Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 9:11 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 66.7%
Books consensus 66.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +188 | -231 |
| FanDuel | +188 | -225 |
| Caesars | +196 | -216 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 33.8% | 68.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Markets average | 32.1% | 67.9% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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