Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
All Minnesota Timberwolves predictions · All Miami Heat predictions
NBA · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · 7:43 PM · Final: 131-106
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Minnesota Timberwolves | Miami Heat |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Novig | +115 | -117 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Timberwolves | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -113 | −1.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | −1.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -105 | −1.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | −1.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | −1.5 -110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 240.5 -118 | 240.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 242.5 -109 | 242.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 240.5 -110 | 240.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 240.5 -115 | 240.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 241 -110 | 241 -110 |
| FanDuel | 241.5 -108 | 241.5 -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 240.5 -115 | 240.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 241 -110 | 241 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Minnesota Timberwolves | Miami Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.