Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

All Indiana Pacers predictions · All Miami Heat predictions

NBA · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Miami Heat to win
Model confidence 73.4%
Books consensus 73.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Indiana PacersMiami Heat
BetMGM +260 -325
BetRivers +270 -345
DraftKings +260 -325
ESPN BET +260 -320
Fanatics +250 -320
FanDuel +245 -300
Hard Rock Bet +260 -325
Novig +277 -292
Caesars +260 -335

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Heat −8.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Heat −3.5
Total
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 239.5
Spread by book PacersHeat
BetMGM +8.5 -102 −8.5 -118
BetRivers +8.5 -113 −8.5 -108
DraftKings +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
ESPN BET +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
Fanatics +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
FanDuel +7.5 +100 −7.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
Caesars +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
BetRivers 237.5 -108 237.5 -113
DraftKings 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -105 237.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 236.5 -115 236.5 -105
Caesars 237.5 -110 237.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Indiana PacersMiami Heat
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 26.6% 73.4%
Best book price incl. vig 26.5% 74.5%
Kalshi contract price 27.2% 72.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record