Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Houston Astros predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 6, 2026 · 2:10 PM · Final: 3-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -109 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +101 | -121 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -113 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Diamondbacks | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -190 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +166 | +1.5 -203 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -121 | 8 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8 -111 | 8 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -114 | 8 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.