New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
All New York Yankees predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 6, 2026 · 4:12 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| BetRivers | -106 | -108 |
| DraftKings | +100 | -120 |
| ESPN BET | +102 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +102 | -112 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +163 | +1.5 -210 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -206 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -190 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -102 | 7 -118 |
| BetRivers | 7 -106 | 7 -114 |
| DraftKings | 7 -103 | 7 -117 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
| FanDuel | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +115 |
| Caesars | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.