New York Mets at Miami Marlins
All New York Mets predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 9-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +115 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +118 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +117 | -141 |
| ESPN BET | +113 | -128 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +120 | -130 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +148 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -184 | −1.5 +152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8 -109 | 8 -110 |
| DraftKings | 8 -120 | 8 -101 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 56.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.4% | 55.6% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.