Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 10:06 PM

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 64.4%
Books consensus 64.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM -210 +170
DraftKings -208 +170
ESPN BET -200 +170
FanDuel -196 +164
Hard Rock Bet -200 +165
Caesars -203 +183

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 64.4% 35.6%
Best book price incl. vig 66.2% 35.3%
Kalshi contract price 64.8% 35.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record