Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 10:06 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 65.7%
Books consensus 65.7%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM -220 +180
BetRivers -245 +200
DraftKings -219 +178
ESPN BET -212 +186
Fanatics -215 +175
FanDuel -210 +176
Hard Rock Bet -210 +175
Caesars -205 +185

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blue Jays −1.5
priced 53.7% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 52.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 8.5
Over 7.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 -130 +1.5 +105
BetRivers −2 -109 +2 -110
DraftKings −1.5 -132 +1.5 +109
ESPN BET −1.5 -130 +1.5 +110
Fanatics −1.5 -125 +1.5 +105
FanDuel −1.5 -122 +1.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -125 +1.5 +105
Caesars −1.5 -130 +1.5 +110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 +100 8 -120
BetRivers 7.5 -120 7.5 -103
DraftKings 7.5 -120 7.5 -101
ESPN BET 7.5 -125 7.5 +105
Fanatics 8 -105 8 -115
FanDuel 8.5 +110 8.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Caesars 8 +100 8 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.7% 34.3%
Best book price incl. vig 67.2% 33.3%
Kalshi contract price 65.8% 34.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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