Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics
MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 10:06 PM
The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 64.4%
Books consensus 64.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Toronto Blue Jays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -210 | +170 |
| DraftKings | -208 | +170 |
| ESPN BET | -200 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -196 | +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -200 | +165 |
| Caesars | -203 | +183 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Toronto Blue Jays | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 66.2% | 35.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 64.8% | 35.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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