Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
All Washington Nationals predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 5:11 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -206 |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -193 |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +166 | -198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +170 | -210 |
| Caesars | +175 | -195 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -129 | −1.5 +106 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -128 | −1.5 +107 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -128 | −1.5 +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -103 | 8.5 -120 |
| DraftKings | 8 -117 | 8 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 36.4% | 65.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.1% | 64.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Markets average | 34.8% | 65.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.