New York Mets at Miami Marlins
All New York Mets predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 7-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -117 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -113 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +100 | -110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -195 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +152 | +1.5 -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +175 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8 -109 | 8 -110 |
| DraftKings | 8 -114 | 8 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 +102 | 8.5 -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -120 |
| Caesars | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 49.5% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.