Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All New York Yankees predictions

MLB · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 7:08 PM · Final: 3-5

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 74.6%
Books consensus 74.6%
Result New York Yankees won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
BetMGM +275 -350
BetRivers +295 -345
DraftKings +277 -354
ESPN BET +281 -330
Fanatics +275 -350
FanDuel +290 -360
Hard Rock Bet +275 -350
Caesars +285 -340

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Yankees −1.5
priced 58.1% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
New York Yankees covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 51.1% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 8
Over 7.5 (8 scored)
Spread by book RockiesYankees
BetMGM +2.5 -140 −2.5 +115
BetRivers +2 -103 −2 -118
DraftKings +1.5 +128 −1.5 -155
ESPN BET +2.5 -130 −2.5 +110
Fanatics +1.5 +125 −1.5 -150
FanDuel +1.5 +128 −1.5 -154
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -130 −2.5 +105
Caesars +1.5 +135 −1.5 -160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
BetRivers 8 -104 8 -117
DraftKings 7.5 -113 7.5 -107
ESPN BET 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Fanatics 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
FanDuel 7.5 -118 7.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Caesars 7.5 -110 7.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 25.4% 74.6%
Best book price incl. vig 25.3% 76.7%
Kalshi contract price 24.5% 75.5%
Polymarket contract price 24.5% 75.5%
Markets average 24.5% 75.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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