Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

All Toronto Blue Jays predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 4-2

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 62.2%
Books consensus 62.2%
Result Toronto Blue Jays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -186 +155
DraftKings -185 +152
ESPN BET -181 +158
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -178 +150
Hard Rock Bet -185 +155
Caesars -190 +158

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blue Jays −1.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 8 books
Toronto Blue Jays covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9.5
priced 45.7% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 9.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
BetRivers −1.5 -117 +1.5 -104
DraftKings −1.5 -112 +1.5 -108
ESPN BET −1.5 -115 +1.5 -110
Fanatics −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
FanDuel −1.5 -114 +1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Caesars −1.5 -120 +1.5 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -120 9 +100
BetRivers 9.5 -105 9.5 -117
DraftKings 9 -115 9 -105
ESPN BET 9.5 +110 9.5 -130
Fanatics 9 -115 9 -105
FanDuel 9.5 +110 9.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +110 9.5 -130
Caesars 9 -120 9 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 62.2% 37.8%
Best book price incl. vig 64.0% 38.8%
Kalshi contract price 61.9% 38.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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