Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Model confidence 61.4%
Books consensus 61.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
BetMGM -185 +150
DraftKings -184 +152
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -172 +144
Hard Rock Bet -175 +145
Caesars -177 +162

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Toronto Blue JaysAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.4% 38.6%
Best book price incl. vig 63.0% 38.2%
Kalshi contract price 62.3% 37.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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