Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
All Washington Nationals predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 2-9
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +148 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +154 | -187 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -195 |
| Caesars | +152 | -180 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Nationals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -143 | −1.5 +118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -143 | −1.5 +118 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -118 | 8.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -109 | 8.5 -111 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -112 | 8.5 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Washington Nationals | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.7% | 64.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.