New York Mets at Miami Marlins
All New York Mets predictions · All Miami Marlins predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 15-14
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +106 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Mets | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -194 | −1.5 +159 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -192 | −1.5 +158 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| BetRivers | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +101 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -122 | 8.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Mets | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 54.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.